ACDI researchers shape South Africa's new National Climate Plan

Researchers from the African Climate and Development Initiative (ACDI) and the Energy Systems Research Group (ESRG) at the University of Cape Town have delivered the core scientific and economic evidence informing South Africa’s second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC2) to achieving the Paris Agreement – the international treaty for limiting global warming and building climate resilience. Submitted to the UNFCCC ahead of COP30, the NDC2 sets out the country’s strengthened climate mitigation and adaptation commitments to 2035.

“Previously there has been very little interaction between those focussing on GHG emissions reductions to shape the climate change mitigation targets and those focussing on assessing climate risks to shape the climate change adaptation goals and priorities. Consequently, these two agendas have often competed for political attention. It is exciting to be part of bringing the mitigation and adaptation work closer together in the South African context, drawing together evidence that can be used to set levels of ambition and priorities for financing and action to tackle climate change holistically”, reflected Dr Anna Taylor, who led the adaptation component of the work.  

Growing Climate Risks and Uneven Adaptation Progress

South Africa’s NDC2 marks a shift from policy design to implementation, following the 2024 Climate Change Act. The ACDI team’s assessment shows that climate risks, across water and sanitation, food systems, human health, infrastructure and ecosystems, are rising in frequency and complexity, with severe consequences for vulnerable communities.

"we have to be doing things now that reduce current climate impacts"

The study also found evidence of growing momentum to plan and implement climate adaptation measures in various sectors, provinces and municipalities, having reviewed 19 sub-national adaptation plans and 129 projects. However, efforts remain fragmented and unevenly distributed, with peri-urban and marginalised communities often under-represented. The research identifies seven adaptation goals (with an eighth goal added during political review) and outlines 36 priority actions to guide investment and coordination.  

“Having reviewed the climate risks facing South Africa, we worked on articulating adaptation goals and activities that direct attention to water and sanitation systems, health services, nutritious food access, disaster preparedness, climate information services, rehabilitating ecosystems and infrastructure upgrading, especially targeting support for vulnerable populations, notably those living in informal settlements. While the mitigation targets reflect the ambition of South Africa to play its part in keeping global average temperatures within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we have to be doing things now that reduce current climate impacts – like the losses experienced due to the KZN floods and the ‘Day Zero’ drought – and prepare all of us in South Africa for adapting to future warming that may exceed 1.5 degrees, bringing more intense extreme events”, explained Anna.  

Priority Actions, Investment Needs and Cost-Effective Solutions

Implementing the 36 adaptation options identified in the analysis will require an estimated R25 billion per year for ten years, most of which is needed to secure water and sanitation systems under worsening drought and flood conditions. A multi-criteria and cost-benefit analysis identified several highly priority actions, including improved sanitation services in high-risk informal settlements, a SADC-wide drought monitoring system, and strengthened national early warning systems.

The study also reveals significant opportunities for blended public–private investment, noting that the South African government already allocates over R400 billion annually to related sectors. Aligning existing funding with climate-resilient development could unlock major gains.

Given that in 2025/26 South Africa budgeted R210 billion for local government’s equitable share, human settlements and water and electricity infrastructure, an additional R175.7 billion for economic regulation and national infrastructure, and R23.7 billion for agriculture and rural development, there is a clear case for spending existing budget allocations in ways that are more aligned with climate resilient development. In an age when the evidence for anthropogenic climate change is unequivocal and the negative impacts of climate change are experienced daily, spending South Africa’s budget in any other way should be seen as grossly negligent.

“While climate change adaptation has historically been cast as a ‘public good’, the analysis points to some adaptation options that could attract private sector investment. The incentives for private sector investment are expected to increase as climate change impacts get worse and these investments should be marshalled by public budget allocations”, said Anton Cartwright, who led the economic analysis of the adaptation work.

A Plan Grounded in Human Wellbeing

A companion blog post highlights one of the most striking findings: full implementation of the adaptation plan could save an estimated 158,000 lives over the next decade. By framing climate action within South Africa’s broader development imperatives of reducing poverty, inequality and unemployment, the NDC2 positions social and economic resilience as the foundation of long-term climate resilience.

“If you are looking for practical ways to strengthen adaptation in South Africa, the technical report lays out a “menu” of options that can be tailored to different contexts, capacities and resources. By laying out adaptation goals and a means of prioritising between options, it’s a powerful go-to guide for municipalities, government teams, organizations, and networks such as the Adaptation Network—helping to drive coordinated climate action where it matters most”, said Dr Darlington Sibanda, who led the review of existing adaptation projects to guide the development of goals and options.  

Read the full technical report and technical brief of the adaptation component here.

The adaptation research was led by Dr Anna Taylor, with contributions from Dr Nicholas Simpson, Dr Darlington Sibanda, Dr Johannes Bhanye, Dr Christopher Trisos, Dr Vuyisile Moyo, Dr Collins Matiza, Birgitt Ouweneel, Anton Cartwright and Prof James Blignaut. The mitigation component was led by Dr Andrew Marquard (ESRG) and coordinated by Samantha Keen, with support from GIZ and ClimateWorks.