The Future of the North: Climate Change & Energy in the Arctic

by Katrine Claassens 

Arctic states find themselves in an interesting position. They have an environment that is currently experiencing the effects of climate change more dramatically and rapidly than anywhere else in the world. Plants, animals and people living in the region are all directly and visibly threatened by rising temperatures in the far North. However, this same region holds oil and gas reserves that are becoming more easily accessible due to climate change. Accessing and using these reserves would only contribute to the problem. Arctic Frontiers, a conference now in its 9th year, seeks to address the huge risks and opportunities inherent in the future Arctic and how to develop the North sustainably. The first two days of the conference focused on policy, after which it split into two sections: “Business” and “Science”.As an ACDI Master’s student, my research concerns the communication of climate change, especially how this is done visually. The Arctic is of particular interest to me as it dominates the visual language of climate change (think of the polar bears and icebergs that proliferate in the media). It was this aspect of my research that brought me to Arctic Frontiers Young Scientist Forum, which included attending the conference and participating in a one week workshop for PhD and Masters’ students.  

Politics and Policy: a curious mix of thawing and frosting between Arctic states

Arctic Frontiers was well-attended by member countries of the Arctic Council (Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian federation, Sweden and the United States). Only established in 1996, the Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum that advances relations between Arctic states and indigenous communities. One of their key focuses is sustainable development and their Sustainable Development Working Group (SDWG) initiates issues on health, socio-economic issues, adaptation to climate change, energy, natural resources management and culture/languages. Non-Arctic states were also present such as Singapore and China (who are Arctic Council Observers). While tension with Russia was visible because of their current relationship with the Ukraine, there was also concern around China’s presence in the Arctic, despite delegates’ assertions that Chinese interests and presence in the Arctic are purely scientific in nature. Cecile Pelaundeix, a professor at Aarhus University, spoke eloquently on the subject, citing China’s intricate and incomprehensible foreign policy on the Arctic (which she maintains are as obscure for many Chinese as it is for foreigners) as a primary reason for confusion, miscommunication and tension in the Arctic. The Northern Sea Route is at the crux of this discussion. Transporting goods through the Arctic is, at least for the moment, a dangerous and expensive exercise and commercial traffic in the Arctic has actually decreased. However, when (and the consensus seems to be that we are talking about ‘when’ not ‘if’) the Arctic becomes ice-free traffic through the Arctic will be on the table again. Many time frames for the first ice-free Arctic were proposed – from between 30 to 80 years – highlighting just how little we know about it and the processes that shape it.

Tourism

I arrived in Tromsø in the pitch dark, that is to say, around lunch time. On my second day the sun rose for the first time in months, and it was a brief affair, with sunrise and sunset occurring in a matter of minutes. The mountains were briefly lit-up and admired by people who stopped their cars in the streets to face the sunlight. Even in the dark Norway was breathtakingly beautiful and seeing the faint strains of the Northern Lights across the sky was an experience I will never forget. It is one that the millions of tourists who are now visiting the Arctic will never forget either! Similar to some places in South Africa, tourism in the Arctic is a doubled edged sword. It provides valuable revenue for locals, including indigenous people, but also increases environmental damage and human safety risks in the region.

The Arctic Environment: causes for concern

The political climate of the Arctic will be increasingly dictated by environmental change. Ice, a critical part of the ecology of the North has rapidly retreated and thinned in the region. Ice loss, retreating glaciers and melting permafrost threatens not just the livelihoods and safety of people living in the Arctic but food chains and the reproductive habits of animals such as walrus, ice seals and polar bears, all of whom rely on the ice for breeding. Fauna and flora distributions have already been observed to be shifting northwards and invasive species are expected to increase. There will potentially be ecological winners, but ultimately mostly losers, as a result of this as ecosystem vulnerability is amplified and functioning is hindered.

The Arctic as an energy super power?

The near complete darkness that the Arctic plunges into for many winter months means that focus has been on gas and wind energy. The construction of wind farms remains a contentious issue for Sammi people, because the locations proposed for these farms are on land that is environmentally sensitive and crucial as reindeer habitats.

Future of the North

It is hard to predict what the future holds for the Arctic but it is certain that it will be different from its past. Who speaks for the region, who will benefit and who will suffer from environmental change and industrial development will all determine this future for the better or the worse, but if the Arctic states move forward in a collective and inclusive manner the road will be less turbulent.

Thumbnail courtesy of Katrine Claassens.