Statistics: paving a way to conservation
Dr Res Altwegg, an Associate Professor at the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Department of Statistical Sciences, is one of the three Research Chairs of the African Climate & Development Initiative (ACDI). His research uses statistical data analysis methods to contribute to the conservation of our biodiversity, and has thus far focused on several bird and frog species, weather and climate systems, and our human impact on ecology.
Under the ACDI Research Chair position, Dr Altwegg’s research programme lies at the intersection between statistics, ecology and climate change. Particularly, the programme focuses on understanding impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as quantifying weather changes in southern Africa and their attribution to climate change. As part of the biodiversity and ecosystem research, Dr Altwegg’s research group uses Southern African Bird Atlas data to examine shifts in relation to different drivers. Using available demographic information (survival, recruitment and population size), they are able to examine the mechanisms by which birds respond to climate variation in more detail. The group also studies phenology shifts to understand how a changing climate affects the timing of the annual life cycle of organisms.
Under the quantification of weather changes research, the programme is documenting how the climate has changed in the recent past, because it is critically important for understanding current biotic responses to climate change. Using state-space models, they are analysing weather trends in detail, and planning to develop these models into tools for attributing weather changes to (anthropogenic) climate change.
Dr Altwegg is also directing the new Centre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation (SEEC) – an inter-departmental grouping based at UCT – which he established in 2014. SEEC’s goal is to be the leading group in statistical ecology and environmental analytics within South Africa. “We provide a hub connecting statisticians and biological/environmental scientists to ensure that the most important environmental questions are addressed with cutting edge statistical methods,” SEEC reported on their website. Recent developments in statistical methods are revolutionising the way ecological and environmental research is conducted, which led to the fields of statistical ecology and environmetrics. These fields use novel statistical approaches to account for uncertainty more comprehensively and to make data more reliable, and will hopefully lead to more sustainable use of biodiversity and improved management of the pressures on our biodiversity.
"We are estimating wildlife demography from capture-mark-recapture data using models that explicitly account for the observation process. For threatened species, the data are often sparse and we integrate information from different data types using integrated population models,” Dr Altwegg commented with regards to his work at SEEC. Current projects include a focus on the declining African penguin and the rare but increasing peregrine falcon, among many other species. The research team at SEEC is developing methods for analysing large-scale bird atlas data where uneven sampling and a heterogeneous detection process are key features. Their spatially explicit capture-recapture models for acoustic data analysis on microphone arrays, is currently being tested on endangered moss frogs in collaboration with CapeNature and funded by the National Geographic Society.
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